That’s some light at the end of the Paulding County recession tunnel, but recovery is likely a year away, according to Dr. William “Joey” Smith, University of West Georgia (UWG) economics professor.

Like the rest of West Georgia and the nation, Paulding County’s economy has been hit hard in the past two years, especially in the housing market, he noted.

However, Smith said a new airport and business park, a planned $100 million WellStar Hospital and a 1,500-job Ryla call center, along with a national upward trend, are optimistic indicators that the Paulding economy may rebound significantly later next year.

That was part of the message presented at the annual 2009 Regional Economic Forecast Breakfast Tuesday morning at University of West Georgia.

Smith told the audience that regional recovery will likely be late in 2010 since the housing slump and unemployment numbers are still holding growth down.

“With hail, swine flu, floods and recession, expect west Georgia rivers to turn to blood in the first quarter of the year,” Smith said. “The housing market continues to have a large negative impact, and goods production has suffered double-digit declines across the region.”

He also noted that regulators have closed the doors on three west Georgia banks during the past year and unemployment still remains high.

Nationwide, he said consumer sentiment is rising some and the Index of Leading Economic Indicators is pointing upward. That is good news for the nation, he added, but the trend has not yet reached the west Georgia region.

Looking at specific parts of the west Georgia economy, Smith sees both good and bad indicators.

“West Georgia has found the bottom in building permit numbers,” he said. “It’s zero!”

Paulding County will have an estimated 242 building permits this year, which is down nearly 66 percent from the 711 permits in 2008 and down 92 percent from 3,014 in 2006.

“Housing is continuing its downward slide and foreclosures are getting worse,” Smith said. “However, pending home sales in the South are picking up and holding.”

All west Georgia counties showed substantial employment declines in the past year, with unemployment hitting a 30-year high, but it may have peaked, he said.

Paulding County lost 1,002 jobs from the first quarter of last year to the 2009 first quarter, a 5 percent loss. The biggest losses were 24 percent in construction and 19 percent in goods production.

Smith also noted that the Paulding County job base is small for its population and tax revenues may suffer because of it. He said that despite the fact that Paulding is the most populated county in the region, it ranks fourth in total employment.

He said the Paulding healthcare job market will benefit significantly from WellStar Health System’s decision to build a $100-million, 100-bed hospital in Hiram. Construction is expected to begin in fall 2010, with opening projected for April 2013.

“The most significant economic development event was the opening in late 2008 of the new Paulding County Regional Airport,” Smith said. “Near-term plans call for the construction of a terminal building, the building of hangars and development of a 130-acre industrial park.”

Donald Ratajczak, economics emeritus professor at Georgia State University, talked to the meeting about the state and national economic outlook.

“We had a liquidity crisis of major proportion and came within a hair of the second Great Depression,” Ratajczak said. “The only difference was that we didn’t have a major run on the banks.”

He said this is a great time to buy a home, due to low interest rates and housing price declines. However, he added that overly protective regulators are preventing banks from approving home loans.

He predicted that there will be almost no growth through the rest of this year and early next year. By the fourth quarter of next year, there should be about 4 percent growth in the economy, he predicted.

“If the regulators don’t kill us, we’ll finally be out of this mire by then,” he said.

Ratajczak said the president’s federal stimulus package has been effective in preventing a complete collapse of the economy. However, he said he would have liked to have seen the administration draft the legislation rather than leaving it up to Congress to add its favorite local projects.