The bad news far outweighed the good in experts’ analyses Tuesday at the Economic Forecast Breakfast at the University of West Georgia.

“The news is a bit depressing, to say the least,” said Dr. David Boldt, chairman of the Department of Economics at UWG.

Indeed, the two speakers, Dr. William “Joey” Smith of UWG’s Department of Economics, and Kenneth Heaghney, state fiscal economist, didn’t refrain from using the word recession in their speeches, unlike the politicians who prefer to categorize the national economic climate as a slowdown.

“It all starts with housing,” Heaghney said. “The prices have fallen on average about 20 percent. That means that if you bought a house in about 2004 with no money down, as some people were doing then, you’re essentially (at) break even. If you’ve bought since then with no money down, you’re under water. You owe more than your house is worth.”

The foreclosure rates left banks with property on their balance sheets that they couldn’t sell. The International Monetary Fund estimates that globally there are $1.4 trillion in assets that will have to be written off before this crisis is over, Heaghney said.

This led to the credit crunch that has tightened the belts of companies across the state and the nation, leading to downsizing, layoffs, and finally to the meltdown on Wall Street, he said.

The stress on companies has strained consumer spending. Consumer spending is driven by income growth, consumer confidence in the economy, wealth - all of the things that are being driven down by the current economic climate.

The one thing rising is consumer prices, he said. Rising oil prices have increased the cost of nearly everything a consumer buys, causing a 4.5 percent inflation rate over this year.

“Less disposable income translates into less spending,” Heaghney said.

Falling gas prices could help fuel an increase in spending, he said. Every penny gasoline prices drop means an extra $1 billion in consumer spending that could be funneled to other things. But with consumers facing debt pressures, much of the money saved will go toward getting out from under that debt, he said. Recovery is a long way off, Heaghney said.

“I’d argue that we don’t need to have housing growth,” Heaghney said. “We need to stabilize as a prerequisite for the economy to begin to grow again.”

That is the one bright spot mentioned by both speakers. Some signs are pointing to the bottoming out in the housing market.

“The glimmer of hope, and Joey mentioned it, is that sales seem to be stabilizing,” Heaghney said. “Beginning in mid-summer or really beginning this year for the existing home sector. We’re beginning to see the year-over-year declines and the month-over-month declines begin to go away.”

However, the slight gain pre-dates the September-October Wall Street crisis, so things may change, he said.

“Housing continues its downward slide in West Georgia,” Smith said. “Our ’08 permits are substantially down. They’re much worse than ’07, and ’07 was a pretty bad year.”

In Carroll County, single-family permits were down 50.3 percent last year. This year, they fell another 63.9 percent.

Smith noted the foreclosure rate in Carroll County dropped slightly this year. During the third quarter of 2007, one in 47 houses was in foreclosure. This year during the third quarter, one in 49 houses is in foreclosure, he said.

Employment in the area is also showing signs of stress, he said. While many surrounding counties saw small job gains ranging from 1 to 1.6 percent, Carroll County saw a 4.9 percent loss, which translates to 1,944 jobs, Smith said. The only gains were in health care and transportation.

Unemployment rates have reached 7 percent in the county, but that doesn’t take into account recent or pending layoffs including the loss of 147 jobs from the Doosan Infracore International, which will close its Carrollton manufacturing plant in November, he said. Unemployment realistically could reach 7.5 or 8 percent, Smith said.

“The increases in these numbers, this reduces our chances for a speedy recovery,” Smith said. “This is probably not going to be a two- or three-month downturn.”

Fred O’Neal, a financial advisor with Edward Jones in Carrollton, attended the breakfast, and was not surprised by the presentation.

“I think they provided candid information which is what people need to see,” O’Neal said. “It’s difficult times, but at least you’re getting the details.”

Nearly every day he has to explain to someone what is happening in the financial markets and how it is affecting them. Sifting through the information is difficult but necessary for people to figure out how to protect themselves, he said.

Donna Lackey, executive director at the Burson Center in Carrollton, in her work with the Carroll County Chamber of Commerce, has seen some good news locally.

“We’re seeing more project activity right now than we’ve seen in a couple of years,” Lackey said.

She wouldn’t specify what companies, but some existing companies are looking at expansion in the county and some new businesses are sniffing around Carroll County for a place to set down roots.

“There is a light there,” Heaghney said. “It just takes time.”

The economy could begin to improve around mid-year in 2009, but even then it will be a slow healing, he warned.