There’s a school of thought that says warm weather during the holidays is bad news for retailers. The suspicion is that because consumers associate Christmas with cold weather, they are less likely to warm up to the holiday spirit when it feels more like springtime than late November or December.

Dan Childs, who manages the Ross Dress for Less store in the Carrollton Crossroads shopping center, isn’t buying into such a notion.

“I think people are going to buy because of the time of year,” he said, debunking the theory.

Sunday and Monday highs reached into the 70s, and today’s forecast high of 74 is 11 degrees higher than normal for this time of year.

But the unseasonably warm weather apparently hasn’t kept shoppers from thinking about Christmas gifts. Local retailers say business is trending up just days ahead of Thanksgiving and the critical weekend that follows.

Black Friday -- the day after Thanksgiving and so named because it can put retailers’ bottom lines “in the black” for the year -- is the traditional start to the Christmas shopping season.

Diane Letts, manager of the Hobby Lobby in Carrollton Crossroads, said consumers haven’t waited for the Thanksgiving weekend to begin parting with their holiday budget. She said business has been booming at her store for seasonal merchandise.

“I’m standing here looking at the registers and a lot of seasonal,” Letts said. “It takes four months to put our seasonal out so we have to start way ahead just to get it out in time.”

And the merchandise has been selling strongly since being put on the floor, she said.

“I don’t really feel like (the warm weather) has hurt business that much, as far as holiday business,” Childs said. “I think people are going to buy holiday either way.”

He did say the warm weather slowed sales in early autumn, though it had to do more with practical matters rather than moods.

“It hurts more at the beginning of the fall season, when you’ve got the sweaters and things like that in and not the cold weather to give people a reason to buy,” he said. “Having the cold snaps that we’ve had have definitely helped.”

Likewise, Robert Howard, who manages the Carrollton Kmart, said the fair weather hasn’t caused shoppers to forget that Christmas is just around the corner. The Carrollton store has surpassed last year’s sales, he said.

The Squire Shop has learned to adjust after a few years of warm falls, owner April Harris said.

“You have to or you won’t make it,” Harris said. “We’ve just learned from the past couple of years to carry lighter weight-type of items and even short-sleeve shirts, just in fall colors.”

Holiday sales are down slightly this year at Carrollton’s Target store, but are still strong, said Kalen King, the assistant store manager.

“It’s a little bit less than last year,” King said. “But I don’t think it’s due to the weather. I would say more due to the economy.”

And that’s the potential grinch, analysts say. Citing consumer concerns such as gas prices and tighter credit, the National Retailers Federation predicts holiday sales growth of 3.7 percent, down from the growth of more than 7 percent last holiday season.

But if weather does indeed play a part in the psyche of shoppers, retailers can point to one good sign -- Black Friday’s high is expected to be only a cool 56 --- 6 degrees below average for that date.